Take the plunge based on "Approximate Truth"

I was reminded of this while reading about Karl Popper's influence on Soros's investment philosophy in "More Money than God". I was also reminded of - why it is important not to wait until you know the "complete" truth. There is nothing wrong in trying to know the truth, or should I say - more truth. But, waiting is waiting. Doesn't matter what you are thinking about if you keep waiting. 

Take for example - a sector that you are trying to invest in. You can essentially spend a few years in trying to know everything or start investing with respectable awareness of the "approximate truth". Even when you do decide to invest in a few companies - diving into the fine print will not get you anywhere. Having seen the inside story of investing for a few years now, I'd be really surprised if someone claims to understand and appreciate all the details. In most cases, I'd probably end the conversation with a laugh unless I am talking to the team who wrote it. 

In fact how many things do we really understand entirely, anyway? I wake up with a song on my mobile phone, fidget with my coffee machine, shuffle through the cereal boxes, wait impatiently (3 seconds) for hot water, plug in my headphones, look at my watch twice during the elevator ride, travel in temperature controlled vehicles for the next hour to reach office. 

By 9 AM I have I pushed a few buttons, turned a few knobs... and I have no clue how they work. In fact coming to think of it - I am surprised that I make it back to my bed everyday (alive). But... I do interact with a lot of such things (without much difficulty) to make more effective use of my time. 

Its not just information that I am talking about. Give "x" amount of rational data (let's say a bunch of economic indicators about renewable energy) to 5 people regarded as experts in that field - it is unlikely that they will reach the same conclusion about the future. There is also a fair chance that some of those conclusions will not be based on objective trail-of-thought, at all. 

So the point is ... wait and poke around. Keep doing that (poking around) but at some point of time  - take the plunge. And it's okay if the tipping point was not a rational call